tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg November 5, 2019 10:00am-11:00am EST
york, 3:00 p.m. in london, and 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie:vonnie: more high-frequency data this morning. we are heading records for the dow and the s&p. the nonmanufacturing index is a beat, 54.7, a couple of points better than the previous month's, and better than analysts weren't is abating. --y were looking for 53 analysts were anticipating. they were looking for 53.5. jobs and labor is a little delayed. let's take a look at how markets are performing. the s&p 500 just a couple of points higher, but we are very settled at this point above the 3000 mark at 3018 today. . the 10 year yield, 1.85%. a little bit of selling potentially after that services data. the oman strengthening -- the
yuan strengthening, below seven for the first time in a couple of months. i thought i would point out, uber down 7% even though analysts were quite happy with the results. guy: european stocks ticking higher on the back of that ism data out of the united states. we are now at 404 on the stock 600. the euro is trading a little softer. interesting to see how far european equities have come. the south african rand continuing to make gains. vonnie: and shanghai, president xi's intake -- president xi reaffirming that his country would open itself up to trade even further. pres. xi: in order to boost growth at home and create more chinaor global growth,
will give greater importance to import. we will continue to lower tariffs and institutional transaction costs. vonnie: we are joined now by bloomberg's selina wang in shanghai. who was xi addressing with this speech? heard, xi isu reiterating his commitment to reform and opening the economy. you didn't even hear him directly address the united states or president donald trump, but you did hear him say that china is committed to advancing globalization, supporting multilateral institutions, and that no one country should put their unilateral interests above those of the greater good. you also heard xi reiterate strengthening intellectual property laws, as well as leveling the playing field power
however, despite all of this rhetoric come of import expo doesn't address some of the underlying issues that foreign multinationals have when operating in china, especially when it comes to china's economic model and state subsidies. there are around 63 countries represented here, including french president emmanuel macron , who gave a speech shortly after xi. however, most western nations did not send a very high-level delegation, if at all. guy: last year in this very speech, he attacked the united states. he barely mentioned the united states this time around. what should we take away from that? that's right. the european union was a very big commentator ahead of this event, really playing a big role here this year. i do want to mention that despite the u.s.-china trade tensions, u.s. exhibitors complied the most space at the
exhibitions this year, so clearly still interested in reaching a large middle class consumption market in china. we have heard some scathing criticism of this event leading up to this from the european union as well, saying that last year, hundreds of deals were inked at this worth billions of dollars. however, in a survey they conducted of the attending companies, about half of them said those deals never came to fruition, so there is a real risk here of promised fatigue. we didn't hear any clear, concrete steps of how they are going to reform and open the economy, so as this conference continues over the next few days, these partner companies, around 3000 of them, from astrazeneca lvmh to many other foreign brands, they are all going to be looking for what are those concrete steps. vonnie: our thanks to bloomberg's selina wang. for more on trade and the impact on the broader markets, at session highs following today's
economic data, we are joined by mike holland, holland and company chairman and founder, and of course, he started the china fund around 25 years ago. not involved anymore as of a year ago. what is xi's strategy? is he willing to wait out trump's presidency, or does he want a deal with donald trump? mike: my guess is he is going to be satisfied with what we hear from the markets, a phase i where he will get a lot of a fews dropping and buy soybeans, and have a nice process come about at the end, what my experience is with people like xi is that he won't give up very much at all. i think donald trump would like to have a success looking kind of signing ceremony. on the other hand, i think the next phase after that, probably not so much good stuff for the u.s.. vonnie: between china wanting a
rollback of some 350 billion dollars of tariffs already in place, and he felt that we haven't gotten to the national security and ip problems, when do you think we will be sorted with china. -- we will be sorted with china? would you be an investor there right now? mike: things are slowing over there. things continue to be ok here economically, so money has been flowing out of china, and for purposes of safety for the chinese people, for their own wealth which they have created, there are threats to that now by the current regime, so money has been going out, but that means prices are down. it is probably a good time to look for good companies over there. watch out for tech, though, because i think tech is going to continue to be a target of the u.s. administration. we may not get a hold let out of the chinese. that's the history of these kind of negotiations. but i think the toughness in , inditexeavors will be
area, the u.s. -- will be, in be tech area, the u.s. will hard there. guy: if we do get this phase i deal, would you be a seller of risk assets? is it better to travel than arrive? mike: that is a great question because i think buy on the rumors, sell on the news. there are rumors that are supportive of higher prices because something is going to happen. if nothing happens, we know what the likely outcome there is. i also think when something happens, presuming it does, it will be more show than substance. therefore, i would guess that in the future, between then and the election for trump, i think you probably would be wise to follow what you just said. guy: do you think the fed, if there is a trade deal, will be
on pause for very long? what does the economic data tell you about where the u.s. economy really is? there seems to be a view at the fed that this phase one deal was going to get done, and as a result, the central bank could pause. do you think that will be the reality of the situation? mike: right now, the answer is yes. that is the best guess because even a few minutes ago, the manufacturing numbers were supportive of that view that things are ok and maybe staying better for a while. more importantly, the u.s. and the european consumers look to be ok. that's two thirds of the u.s. economy, so listening to the reports over the last couple of days, listening to what the consumers are doing, i think we are in a position right now where things continue to be ok for the consumer, so the answer is yes, i think they will
continue. are we underestimating china and its ability? ?re we being very naive here china can move very fast when it wants to. mike: totalitarian state, very smart people. coupletory over the last thousand years would indicate we are underestimating, as we normally do, the chinese savvy in terms of times like this. as trading partners or trading enemies, to some extent, we have a situation where they're going to extract everything they can. they know our politics very well, so they are playing for time here. vonnie: we are seeing the indices at records. it makes me smile because there are very definite signs of slowdown in certain parts of the country and the economic data sphere.
you've been doing this a while. you've watched markets a while. does it feel like any other you?d to do you feel like we are in for a drop at some point, or are they held up by the front a mental's? -- by the fundamentals? mike: we are due for a drop at some point. i don't know when or how much. we are at extreme valuations in the fixed income market. we have a situation where, with , we'vee interest rates never had negative interest rates as part of the equation. things coming out of washington, people are questioning the maneuvers of our federal reserve and the day-to-day business of the markets. you talk about china having a tightening problem over the last few days. we've had some very crazy things
happen quietly in markets. not predicting it, but those are things to watch out for, for sure. , u.s.his time last year treasuries were greater than 2%. our there -- they are now less than 2%, yet stocks have rallied year on year. does that make sense to you? mike: absolutely. ,hen you have no alternative talking about low interest rates or, i have trouble even saying the phrase negative interest rates, it sums like an oxymoron to me. when you have people chasing for yield, that's why we have a 12% increase in stock prices, to a great extent. also, we do have a continuing ok , healthy economy in the united
states. i think it is a function of people paying a higher price than they did a year ago. that is most of the movement does directly related to the drop in interest rates. guy: do you think the consumer is going to hold up? you talked about the fact the consumer is looking good now. do you think that is going to carry on? the payrolls are coming down. they are still ok. upre are a few crocs showing -- a few cracks showing up. is the consumer going to be strong enough to maintain this cycle, and do you think the manufacturing sector can dip, stabilize, and come out as the consumer holds everything else up? taylor: both of those --mike: both of those look as if the answer is probably yes. i'm always prepared to be surprised to the downside. when you get stocks at their peaks, you have to put a little money aside for a surprise to the downside, so i've been
putting a little cash aside myself. at the end of the day, however, both areas, given what we are hearing from the companies and , i don't anticipate a major surprise to the downside in either area in the near term. i'm not expecting it. vonnie: one thing you know a lot about is resilience. on a separate sidenote, i wanted to point out that we had the new york marathon, and we have a picture of you finishing the new york marathon for the 22nd time. run 20 plus new york marathons in your time. mike: i just finished that a few minutes ago. [laughter] vonnie: i did want to make a point about this because, a, that is a phenomenal achievement, and congratulations. 22 is -- and you are not done
yet, and not just new york. you made a joke about how it was in your personal best, and might have been your personal worst. but in a sense, there is victory in not achieving those earlier goals you might have once had. talk a little bit about how that might translate into investing. mike: actually, they are related. that is just part of my life, and the idea of maintaining some discipline through tough times, ,hen things get kind of rocky most of my contemporaries in marathon running and in the markets are no longer around. one of the things that has helped me to be a survivor, book is a wonderful that says we will have an ugly period sometime in the future. i'm kinda prepared for that, just as i was prepared for times in the marathon where i said, i don't have anything to prove.
i'm out of here. but i didn't. so the answer is persistence, in an intelligent way. if you are about to die in a marathon or about to lose everything in the stock market, you do that. well --grats to me as congrats from me as well, mike. one of my early mentors used to describe you as ike holland, holland -- as mike holland, and co-owner of the holland tunnel, but that was many years ago. vonnie: we have much more to talk about. i want to talk about public and private companies, and these billion-dollar valuations. mike is staying with us, mike holland, but let's check in on the first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: president donald trump is urging voters in kentucky to reelect the republican governor. he says it would send a message to house democrats conducting an impeachment investigation.
governor races in mississippi and louisiana are also seen as a test of the president's popularity. there are races in virginia for the state legislature. in mexico, nine numbers of a mormon family were killed in an ambush that took place as they traveled between northern states. the attackers were believed to have been members of organized crime, specifically drug cartels. six of the victims, children. for decades, this family has lived in a fundamentalist mormon community in my sicko. president trump site -- in mexico. president trump saying the u.s. is ready to help mexico defeat drug cartels. and boeing ceo dennis muilenburg turned down his bonus until the troubled 77 max is flying again -- troubled 737 max is flying again. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado.
how are we supposed to read the times right now? mike: this part of it is familiar from previous things that have happened over the decades. in the private equity market, that was the place where the most extreme, illogical valuations were. companies growing revenues rapidly, reported here, and we start with uber as one of the prime examples. when these companies with no earnings went public, than people in the marketplace paid those extreme valuations. -- taking of others, zoom i'm thinking of others, zoom. the market finally said, these are crazy. these people may never make any money. it is like negative interest rates. this is crazy stuff. so when the crazy stuff began to find the reality grounding, that's what happened. a lot of them have been
decimated. i think that is just the start of a very healthy process of saying, this made no sense. we are going to continue to punish people who have no earnings and no prospects of earnings. guy: can i ask you a big picture question? i'm sitting here in london. european equities have massively underperformed u.s. equities for a very long time, yet there are signs that that is starting to turn. is it time for u.s. investors may be to look elsewhere? mike: quick answer would be, from my instinct and experience, yes. coordinate that with looking at parts of the u.s. market that have been underperforming. i'm talking about industrials. a lot of companies that are single-digit multiples. just crazy, crazy multiples, and they are solid companies. they don't have to be growing at 15% plus a year. they sibley have to be good companies that can grow somewhat. you have those in europe.
not all european companies are growing. but the ones that have some growth, and same in the u.s., companies that have been long neglected. a wonderful place to be, i was singing of the 1970's and the nifty 50, which is what the private equity valuations, when they came public, were kind of like. so when those things crashed, the right place to have made some money was, in today's market, would have been the forgotten u.s. market, but also europe. so the answer is yes. vonnie: we have to leave it there, but looking forward to getting you back in again soon to talk about more marathons to come. this is the 22nd marathon runner mike holland with us, holland & co. chairman and founder. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
abigail: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm abigail doolittle. let's get a look at equity markets. the s&p 500 up a little bit. we have a new round of record highs in the u.s. probably a sense that nothing too bad is ahead by the end of the year. we see the stoxx 600 in europe up just slightly. waynikkei index up in a big after markets returned after a holiday. when we go into the bloomberg and take a look at some of these indexes, relative to the rsi, this is a momentum indicator. went above 70. that indicates overbought, but we will not see a slowdown too soon. it is when you see it go back down into the range. it seems as though the
technicals are on the side of stocks. from an individual mover perspective, lots of laggards to take a look at. uber missing bookings and user estimates. air france investors skeptical about their turnaround plans. finally, take a look at pandora, down 17.5%. morgan stanley calling pandora a black box. guy: that's what they are saying about next year. thank you very much indeed. still ahead, goldman sachs has a message for investors in growth stocks after being stunned by losses in uber and wework. we are going to hear from the bank's ceo david solomon, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
hurtado. viviana: beijing wants the u.s. to roll back tariffs on as much as three under $60 billion of chinese imports to sign an interim trade deal with the u.s.. in return, china could remove tariffs on u.s. goods, mostly farm products. this month, both sides hope to wrap up a deal. president trump asking his chinese counterpart xi jinping to help alleviate the opioid problem as part of. the larger trade talks. washington -- as part of the larger trade talks. opioids are blamed for thousands of deaths in the u.s. today, more transcripts due out from the house impeachment investigation. we are expecting to get the transcript from the hearing with gordon sondland, the u.s. ambassador to the eu. house democrats say in the coming days, more will be released.
during the u.k. election campaign, there is one thing prime minister boris johnson can count on. that is the support of hedge funds. in a little over a year, johnson raising more than $500,000. johnson supporters held a secret fundraiser to cap prominent fund managers -- to tap prominent fund managers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. hurtado.na this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. goldman sachs ceo david solomon spoke to bloomberg's matt miller on the saudi aramco ipo, valuing companies going public, and growth sentiment versus profit ability. take a listen. david: we are involved in the aramco ipo, and i am not going to comment on an active transaction like that. we've been in the ipo business for a long time. we've had a leading role in the ipo business broadly, all over
the world, for the last 30 to 40 years. generally speaking, we are fortunate to be in a position to help our clients. matt: it seems difficult to value this one. it seems difficult to value ipos in general. there was a time when people were talking about wework is a $50 billion, $60 billion company. why is it so hard to put a value on companies this close to going private? david: at the end of the day, what are investors willing to pay for a company when they have the transparency of the real financial information that's been vetted and presented in an appropriate way? when you have that, the market will speak. using the wework example, there was a lot of hype around that come about when investors were able to have a discussion with real financial information and provide feed act, and work with the company, there was a pretty clear view as to where the company could go public. companies,group of
the unicorns that have had ipo had post ipot have problems like uber, are we see rick -- are we seeing re-flexion's of thedotcom -- are we seeing reflections of the dotcom era? david: it is very different than that narrow slice of time during that bubble, when there were a lot of companies in a different state that were getting to public markets. i do think what is happening is the monetary policies that's been rampant around the world has basically forced people out on the risk curve, forced people to look for other ways to drive returns. one of the things they've been chasing his growth, and to some degree, growth at all cost. there is sentiment that if you can hook your wagon to a company with a lot of growth, something
good will come to that. lots of in scented companies to capital spending from investors and spend it aggressively to drive topline growth without understanding because it wants of how that can translate to profitability. i think the market here is kind of speaking and telling people, you know what? let's rein that in a little bit. it's important for people to grow, but there's got to be a clear and articulated path to profitability, to earnings, and some way, shape or form. a company can only be worse, over time, the discounted future value of its earnings. so it is important that you have a business model ultimately that can generate profitability, and i think there's a bit more market is blinn coming into play, and i think that is healthy for markets -- bit more market discipline coming into play, and i think that is healthy for markets. guy: we were just talking about uber. they were talking about it in that conversation. let's figure out exactly what solomon was saying, and how that
relates to the ridesharing app, reporting better-than-expected third-quarter revenue after the bell yesterday. investors disappointed with user growth, and the stock dipping sharply lower today. bloomberg opinion's alex webb joins us with the details. whatme ways, it is exactly they've bid solomon is saying companies now need to do. it almost sounds like they are investment bankers. it almost sounds like they are investment bankers. uber has said we are going to be operable on an adjusted operating basis in 2021. but the kind of flipside of that is there was a slight drop in the pace of growth on the absolute bookings number. that bookings number is literally what i pay to the app. uber takes a cut of that, and uber's profitability, the revenue attributable to her to -- to uber, increased faster
than expected. isn't as fast,th and investors want both. investors want growth -- want profit, but also want growth to continue. the stock is down quite a bit today, not least because it's six months since the ipo happened, so the lockout just ended. . vonnie: how much of the negative sentiment is due to that? it does seem like analysts were quite ok with everything else uber reported in the financial report. alex: it's very hard to quantify, but this clearly played a role. it is not a catastrophic drop off after the numbers were reported in after-hours trading. justrop was about 5%, before coming on air about 6%, 6.5%. clearly, the story for uber was a compelling one in terms of being able to generate profits,
sustainable profits going forward. you wouldn't expect people to be getting out of it at all if it was and that really compelling profitable growth story. i think those factors clearly play a role. guy: what are the implications of this for the softbank story? alex: we've got softbank's earnings coming up. we know there's expect it to be some write-downs through their numbers, given they have huge exposure to. they have less exposure, but huge exposure to companies like slack and others who have gone public. i don't know yet whether we will see the impact of the wework investments. it is theet that parent company that bailed out wework, not necessarily softbank's vision fund, so lots of moving parts. it has been reported that some sort of write down will be coming out as a consequence of uber disappointing in the past six months.
guy: thank you very much. we look forward to seeing what they have to say. alex webb joining us on uber. we will see from softbank a little later on. a little bit of breaking news, former u.k. chancellor philip hammond has announced on twitter he is going to quit parliament. he says he is saddened to be forced out by boris johnson. this is significant because this is another remain tory candidate that is going to be leaving parliament, and in some ways, this is important for boris johnson's majority. if it is stacked with leaveers rather than a mix of leavers and remainers, that will make johnson's job a bit easier. vonnie: in some ways, it might have been expected. he phrases it as having been forced out by boris johnson, so it is an interesting develop met, but there may have been no future for philip hammond, particularly if boris johnson will win the election on to summer 12th. up next -- on december 12.
vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: u.s. trade with china plunged in september following new tariffs. commerce secretary wilbur ross says licenses to sell to huawei will come very shortly. our next guest warns about the threat that chinese tech firms posed to u.s. national security.
let's get to bloomberg's shery ahn. shery: thank you so much. i'm standing by with the federal communications commission chairman ajit pai. thank you for joining us in the new york studio. let me get started with your concerns about chinese equipment. you had an op-ed published last week that said lending this equipment in america's 5g networks would open the door to censorship, surveillance, espionage, and other harms. what sort of evidence have you seen that lead you to this conclusion? ajit: we've seen a great variety of evidence with respect to particular chinese vendors behaving in ways not consistent with the rule of law, with free markets and the like. earlier this year, the department of justice announced an indictment against huawei. the indictment specifically states that huawei officials offered bonuses to individuals who successfully stole confidential information from certain businesses. more generally, this is part of the over chinese government to
effort we fear to leverage geo little commerce, involving everything from the nba to taiwanese flag emojis to even e-sports. when it comes to our 5g networks, which are going to transform our economy, it raises risk concerned that i don't think many americans want to take. shery: no wonder the fcc has a vote coming up to prohibit companies receiving federal subsidies from buying equipment from huawei and zte. take a listen to what the huawei security officer had to say about the impatience of this boat. -- this vote. >> there's 130, needs that would like to sell to huawei, probably over 40,000 u.s. jobs. we would hate to see that impact. the fact is huawei is going to do fine. our revenue for the first three quarters of the year was up 34%. we will do business in the united states. impactwill this have an
on these u.s. firms and jobs? ajit: i start from a bedrock principle. when it comes to the security of america's communication networks, we can't just take a risk and hope for the best. we need to get it right, especially with something as trans formative us 5g. that's why we made it clear that we don't want federal funds coming from the fcc to be spent vendors.n in this case, we have serious concerns that chinese national intelligence law requires companies like huawei to comply with intelligent services and not disclose that with customers. shery: beijing argues that the law you are alluding to is actually defensive. it doesn't authorize preempt of spying. why aren't you convinced? ajit: in part because the chinese government has made clear they want to leverage their influence in any area,
particularly when it comes to telecom. that is a risk we cannot take. secondly, we have evidence. i mentioned the indictment earlier this year. that vendor has engaged in certain practices we find problematic. we want to make sure the equip and and services going to america's communications networks are secure. --t is the base level at that is the base level expedition that every american consumer should have. shery: if you tell them that you have to remove them and replace them, what would be the financial cost for them? would you help them out? ajit: the only problem with cheap is sometimes it can cost too much. when it comes to national security, that is not a risk we want to take. the fcc will vote on my plan to evaluate what equipment from chinese vendors is in our networks, and think about ways to fund the replace of it. that is a conversation we will kickstart in a couple of weeks because we recognize the concern. shery: where would the money come from? ajit: congress is currently
considering legislation to fund the removal and placement of that equipment. shery: what that happen before they go through the process? some small carriers don't have the credit to go ahead and do it, and then get refunded. ajit: that is one of the things we are exploring it is conversation, how to make that transition from the current state of the network to the more trusted vendor framework. shery: the reason we are focusing so much on security these days is because of the launch of 5g. two companies that have said they will try to deploy our t-mobile and sprint. you have cleared them for their merger. do you expect the fcc order to have an impact on the bunch of states that are suing that don't want to see this happen? ajit: i would hope those states would recognize what the fcc has recognized, what many people have recognized. this transaction would be in the public interest. the companies agreed to deploy 5g to 99% of the american
population within six years. -- 15abit per service megabit per second service. that is a huge benefit. more in-home fixed broadband competition. the things that are consistent with the public interest. shery: the argument is that would have happened anyways because they have committed to the deployment of 5g anyways. ajit: that is not the case. t-mobile has a very good position in low band and high band spectrum, but it does not have good made jam -- good made band spectrum assets. for 5g, you need a mix of all three. we think the newly capitalized company, once it is together, will be a greater competitor, especially when you're talking about an industry where, by some estimates, the largest competitors have 90% of the free flow. we want to turbocharge a third competitor to compete with them, and we believe this turns action will do that. shery: when will this happen? it's been 18 months.
even that hearing by the states hasn't happened. iit: i can't for cased -- can't forecast how the litigation is going to turn out. from our perspective, we want to make sure the public is able to benefit from some of these commitments we've gotten from the parties will deliver faster, better internet access services when it comes to wireless well into the future. ajit: you've spoken extensively about big tech regulating them, the freedom of speech as well, especially when it comes to companies being able to block some content they don't want to see. what are your thoughts about twitter now banning political ads and facebook not doing so? ajit: we don't regulate content companies like that. we don't discuss the content decisions they make. what i will say is i personally have said it is important to have transparency across the entire internet, the -- entire internet economy. tell the consumer how you're making these decisions, and that will give better insight into
how you're making these decisions. we've seen over the last couple of years a growing groundswell on both sides of the aisle in washington of concern about how some of these powerful digital platforms are making these decisions. increasingly, that is the public square in the digital area. shery: do you think a blanket ban on political ads helps that cause? ajit: that is a decision that those private platforms would have to make. i know regulators are looking at that issue. we just went to make sure those digital platforms are available to as many as possible, and that they are transparent so consumers understand what they are getting. shery: you spoke about transparency, privacy, free expression in your blog post last year. what progress have you seen so far? ajit: so far it's been in fits and starts. companies are recognizing the need to be more transparent about how they make some of these decisions. you see in washington, some of these hearings and other fora, that we still don't have a lot of insight into how these decisions are made. it is important across the
internet economy. at the fcc, we have a strong transparency rule where every network operator has to disclose its business practices, network management practices. that is something every american, regardless of political stripe, would agree with. they say strong conversation across the country. how should these powerful tech giants abide by those particles? we are not sure how the -- by those principles? we are not sure how the competition will evolve. shery: ajit pai, thank you. guy: let's turn our attention to the stock of the hour, the fast food darling shake shack, the high flyer burger chain, may be headed into its worst day ever are comp sales trailed estimates forecasts.ent cut the tie up with grubhub for delivery is also a cause for
concern. abigail: forecasts. truly an ugly day for these shares, the worst day ever for shake shack. a very interesting dynamic occurring here. as you mentioned, they missed third quarter comp sales, but actually beat revenues in a big way. that speaks to a lack of organic growth. basically, comp sales our existing stores, up just 2%, missing estimates. overall sales beating by 32%. that speaks to the fact they've been opening stores. in the third quarter, they opened 15 stores. new store growth growing of 35%, reminiscent of the crisp cream -- the krispy k reme craze back in the day. if we go into the bloomberg very quickly and take a look at this terminal, the stock ipo to back in 2015. high, 70%16 at that
vonnie: it's time now for futures in focus. joining us is the chief market strategist at walsh trading. we have seen stocks go higher and higher. what is the reason? it is not purely trade negotiations, is it? >> there's a lot of different factors going into this. the refinery rate is expected to move up. u.s. and north america are aggressively trying to add supply and build reserves. with the trade war talks, the biggest thing with that is if we get a little bit of a break or
ease in tariffs, demand in china should pretty much explode. that is what you are seeing, a little bit of the price continuing to move up. we've been moving straight up for the last three or four days and around. with that -- three or four days in a row. with that being said, you've got to look at outside factors. always the trade war talks, getting closer to a phase one deal, whatever that means. we still have no clear idea of what that is going to actually be. is that going to be a longer-term deal? china already said they do not want a long-term deal. it really depends what the short-term aspect is going to be. what is going to be actually inked? not just all the rumors swirling around. if we see any break in tariffs, we should get a bump in all of the commodities. vonnie: it looks like dairy farmers in pro-trump states are getting a little relief after a
long time where they were really on the brink of survival. what is happening with those prices? scott: milk farmers have been in about a five year glut, so with this move up in milk, it is selling them a lot. but the farmers in general have been under so much stress this year, between trade war talks, bad weather, and everything going back and forth. this friday, we have a big supply and demand report. that is going to determine which way we are moving forward in the next couple of weeks. vonnie: scott, thank you for that. that is scott gecas, chief market strategist at walsh trading, joining us from the cme for futures in focus. coming up, we will speak with rabobank's jane foley. this is bloomberg. ♪
6% as a new strategic plan falls flat with investors. we will hear from ceo ben smith. and on the eeev of south africa's investment conference, we will speak -- and on the eve of south africa's investment conference, we will speak with colin coleman of goldman sachs. withuy johnson in london, vonnie quinn in new york. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: we have a race to those earning these gains, down about 0.1% on the s&p 500 -- we have gains,those earnings down about 0.1% on the s&p 500. investors continue to sell treasuries and